Political Trends Behind the Headlines
TBI Political Team
11th May 2021
Labour Needs a Big Bang Moment
I published a piece in The Independent last Friday on what the local elections mean for Labour. My key reflection is that what the party needs most now is a big bang moment, not more gradual change.
· The Tory Party continued to break down Labour’s red wall. Labour lost control of Durham County Council, which it has run since 1925.
· The Party also lost the Hartlepool by-election, losing the seat for the first time in 62 years.
· The Tories received 73% of the vote in the Tees Valley mayoral election.
· If the vote share was reflected at the next general election the Conservatives would increase their majority.
What is needed in response to this set of results, in my view, is a big bang reset moment. This includes: setting out a clear political rejection of Corbynism, taking a credible position on the economy and spending, being honest that we haven’t truly tried to compete for power for over a decade and setting out a positive future vision to unite the country behind (e.g. harnessing technology).
Dan (Twitter: @DanielSleat)
A Highway to Economic Ruin
After more than three decades being run by the same party, Montenegro recently elected a new Prime Minister, Zdravko Krivokapic, a moderate conservative with a pro-western orientation. Expectations for the new government are very high, but Krivokapic’s administration will inherit significant economic challenges from their predecessors.
· At the end of last month, Montenegro asked the EU for assistance paying off a $1bn Chinese loan for an incomplete highway project that has imperiled the finances of the small western Balkan nation.
· Even before COVID struck, the Montenegrin economy was struggling under the weight of the costly loan. Montenegro raised eyebrows in 2014 when it signed a deal with the China Road and Bridge Corporation to finance the cost of a road worth almost $1bn, making it one of the most expensive highways in the world.
· The decision has been scrutinized given that two separate feasibility studies, in 2006 and 2012, concluded that the highway was economically unviable. Completion of the highway has already been delayed by two years.
· Together with the pandemic, this has sent net debt soaring to a projected 88.6% of gross domestic product.
To help pay off this debt, the government is seeking financial help from a range of western organizations, including the European Commission, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The saga is part of a larger geopolitical battle for influence on the EU’s periphery. How Brussels responds to Podgorica’s request — and whether it will bail the country out of a project long deemed unviable — will help to shape the bloc’s relationship with the region.
Joanna
Vaccine Hesitancy
The last few months have seen a massive increase in the number of vaccinated peoples in the world. However, the primary beneficiaries of this are still located in richer, industrialized nations. As the table below shows, a large portion of the global south is seriously lagging behind the global north. There are a multitude of reasons for this, from vaccine supply shortages to the guarding of vaccine IP. One concerning reason however is vaccine hesitancy. This is particularly prevalent in Africa where governments are struggling to convince their populations to take the vaccine even when it is available:
· In a five-country survey published on March 9th by Afrobarometer, a pan-African pollster, an average of 60% of respondents said they were unlikely to try to get vaccinated.
· Kenya was given around a million AstraZeneca vaccines in March through COVAX in the hopes of vaccinating 400,000 of its frontline health workers. As of April 25th, they had only vaccinated 152,700 due to vaccine hesitancy. They have since had to expand the eligible population due to the risk of the vaccines expiring.
· Nigeria received its first shipment of 3.92 million AstraZeneca shots on March 2. By April 23, just over 1.15 million doses had been administered. At this rate, it could take until mid-August to use the doses and nearly a decade to vaccinate the adult population. The shots will expire on July 9 according to the government.
· The Ivory Coast vaccinated 105,110 people between March 1 and April 21. It has ordered 1.7 million doses through COVAX, and as of April 21 had approximately 540,000 doses on hand. At this rate, it would take more than 2 years to use the 1.7 million ordered doses.
Even with available vaccine supplies, the rates at which the countries are vaccinating their populations are far too slow. If the world is to overcome the pandemic, governments must quickly wage successful information campaigns aimed at building trust in these vaccines.
Harry (Twitter: @summers_c_harry)
Long Covid and its Implications for Vaccine Hesitancy
We’ve previously written twice on the subject of Long Covid — once to explore the scale of the issue and a second time to examine the progress made regarding treatment and support for those suffering from Long Covid in the UK.
Since then, another study, thought to be the largest post-acute Covid-19 study to date, has been published which sheds more light on the condition of Long Covid and its implications.
The study revealed that those who had Covid-19 were found to be at higher risk for new onset heart disease, diabetes, mental health disorders such as anxiety and depression, substance use disorders, kidney disease and many other conditions. While some of these conditions are likely to be a result of inflammation caused by the virus, others could be linked to the life changes that accompany falling ill with the virus.
The consequences of Long Covid need to be made clear to the public: Long Covid does not discriminate based on age or severity of an initial infection. Young people, although not at high risk of suffering from severe acute Covid infections, can still suffer from the lingering effects of Long Covid. As vaccine hesitancy continues to be a persistent issue around the world, making sure people are aware of the risks associated with Covid and Long Covid could help drive uptake among otherwise hesitant individuals. To make this argument even more persuasive, additional research needs to be conducted to determine any concrete impacts of vaccination on the likelihood of developing Long Covid.
Brianna (Twitter: @brianna_kmiller)
Voter suppression vs voter fraud
Today’s Queen’s speech revealed the government’s plans to make it a requirement that individuals present a form of voter ID before voting in general elections. This has led to much controversy with even backbench Conservative MPs pointing to it as an ‘illiberal solution to a problem that does not exist’. The debate currently seems stuck between those claiming voter suppression and the government arguing that voter fraud must be addressed.
The topic can be thought of in four parts:
1. Is there a problem?
2. Do you care about the problem?
3. Does the proposed solution solve the problem?
4. What are the side effects, and can they be justified?
The main argument against the government’s plans is that voter fraud is not a serious concern — out of the 47.5 million people who voted in the 2019 general election, there was only one conviction for voter fraud and zero cautions. The government may argue that the nature of the offence means that official figures are an underestimation, but they have so far failed to provide any evidence to support this view.
The other main objection to these plans is that they are likely to disenfranchise particular demographic groups, namely those who are younger/poorer and therefore less likely to own a form of photo ID. Data suggests that these groups are prone to voting for the Labour Party, raising the question of whether this is a fundamentally political move by Boris Johnson’s government.
If voter fraud was a serious issue, the government could take the time to develop a strategy that means everyone is provided a form of voter ID, free of charge. The fact that this has not been done points to the political nature of the policy.
Rania (Twitter: @Raniaramli_)
